[
 {
  "id": "packaging",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Advanced chip packaging",
  "status": "built",
  "parent": "chips",
  "link": "hard",
  "description": "Joining chips and memory into one package (TSMC’s CoWoS), the step that limits accelerator output.",
  "evidence": "TrendForce reports the CoWoS supply–demand gap at about 20%, narrowing to about 10% by the end of 2026. AI 2027’s compute forecast names packaging and memory as the binding limits.",
  "sources": [
   "cowos",
   "ai2027compute"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "euv",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "EUV lithography capacity",
  "status": "built",
  "parent": "chips",
  "link": "hard",
  "description": "The extreme-ultraviolet machines, made only by ASML, that print leading-edge chips.",
  "evidence": "ASML expects about 65 Low-NA EUV shipments in 2026 and about 30% more EUV capacity in 2027, with 2027 orders nearly covered.",
  "sources": [
   "asml"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "autochip",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Automated chip design",
  "status": "emerging",
  "parent": "chips",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "AI agents designing and checking chips: AI starting to build its own substrate.",
  "evidence": "Cadence claims its ChipStack agent validates chip designs more than 40 times faster, with early access in the second half of 2026. These are vendor figures.",
  "sources": [
   "cadence"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "customacc",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Custom AI accelerators",
  "status": "built",
  "parent": "compute",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "Chips designed by the cloud companies themselves, such as Google’s TPUs and Amazon’s Trainium.",
  "evidence": "Anthropic has access to up to a million Google TPUs, and AWS’s Project Rainier runs about 500,000 Trainium2 chips. Labs now assemble diversified compute portfolios.",
  "sources": [
   "dcf",
   "soaicompute"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "infchips",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Inference-specialised chips",
  "status": "emerging",
  "parent": "compute",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "Chips built to serve models fast and cheaply rather than to train them.",
  "evidence": "Nvidia paid $20bn to license Groq’s technology and hire most of its team.",
  "sources": [
   "groq"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "neocloud",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Neocloud compute providers",
  "status": "built",
  "parent": "compute",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "Specialist clouds such as CoreWeave and Nebius that rent GPUs to labs, often financed with debt.",
  "evidence": "CoreWeave has 1.5 GW active and 4.2 GW contracted. Its second-quarter filing showed $35.6bn of debt against $5.5bn of cash, and on 16 October 2026 its shares and Nebius’s each fell about 12%.",
  "sources": [
   "soaicompute",
   "tikr"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "offbs",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Off-balance-sheet datacentre finance",
  "status": "built",
  "parent": "capex",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "Datacentres paid for through joint ventures and special-purpose debt, so the debt sits off the hyperscaler’s balance sheet.",
  "evidence": "Meta’s Hyperion uses $27.3bn of SPV debt in a joint venture 80% owned by Blue Owl. Hyperscalers and chipmakers hold more than $3tn of commitments off balance sheet.",
  "sources": [
   "hyperion",
   "soaicompute"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "vendorfin",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Chipmaker vendor financing",
  "status": "built",
  "parent": "capex",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "Chipmakers lending to, guaranteeing or investing in the customers that buy their chips.",
  "evidence": "Nvidia’s financing platform aims to mobilise more than $500bn. A reported, unconfirmed $250bn guarantee for OpenAI coincided with Nvidia’s largest-ever rise in credit default swap prices.",
  "sources": [
   "soaicompute",
   "axiosnv"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "creditrisk",
  "kind": "brake",
  "label": "AI infrastructure credit risk",
  "status": "emerging",
  "parent": "capex",
  "link": "works-against",
  "description": "The chance that debt-funded datacentres and neoclouds cannot refinance.",
  "evidence": "CoreWeave’s 2030 bond yields neared 16% after the 16 October 2026 selloff.",
  "sources": [
   "tikr"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "btm",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Behind-the-meter generation",
  "status": "built",
  "parent": "power",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "Datacentres building their own gas or other plants on site instead of waiting for the grid.",
  "evidence": "SemiAnalysis counts about 75 GW of firm behind-the-meter orders for AI compute and about 3 GW of US IT load running on it by the end of 2026. A 1 GW islanded plant costs about $5bn.",
  "sources": [
   "btm"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "turbines",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Gas turbine and engine supply",
  "status": "built",
  "parent": "power",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "The turbines and engines that new gas generation needs, now sold years ahead.",
  "evidence": "GE Vernova’s gas backlog plus slot reservations reached 116 GW at the end of the second quarter of 2026, and SemiAnalysis says turbine slots are sold out into the 2030s.",
  "sources": [
   "turbines",
   "btm"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "dclabour",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Datacentre construction labour",
  "status": "emerging",
  "parent": "power",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "Electricians, boilermakers and other trades to build datacentres and their power.",
  "evidence": "SemiAnalysis projects a gap of about 288,000 workers in 2027, with boilermakers the scarcest. This is one analyst’s estimate.",
  "sources": [
   "btm"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "expertdata",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Expert human data market",
  "status": "built",
  "parent": "data",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "Paying domain experts to write and grade training data.",
  "evidence": "Mercor passed $2bn of gross annualised revenue in June 2026, paying more than $2m a day to over 30,000 contractors a week.",
  "sources": [
   "mercor"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "rlenv",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "RL environment market",
  "status": "built",
  "parent": "data",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "Companies building simulated workplaces and tasks for reinforcement learning.",
  "evidence": "Epoch AI finds environment contracts often run to six or seven figures a quarter; a high-fidelity Slack replica costs about $300,000.",
  "sources": [
   "rlenvs"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "rewardhack",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Reward-hacking-robust graders",
  "status": "emerging",
  "parent": "verifiers",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "Training checks that models cannot game.",
  "evidence": "Environment builders consistently ranked robustness against reward hacking as the top quality criterion. Models have been caught checking future commits on SWE-bench Verified.",
  "sources": [
   "rlenvs"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "smuggling",
  "kind": "brake",
  "label": "Chip smuggling",
  "status": "built",
  "parent": "exportctl",
  "link": "works-against",
  "description": "Advanced chips reaching restricted countries despite export controls.",
  "evidence": "Epoch AI estimates about 660,000 H100-equivalents were smuggled through the end of 2025 (90% range 290,000 to 1.6 million), roughly a third of China’s AI compute.",
  "sources": [
   "smuggle"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "remoteacc",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Remote compute access controls",
  "status": "emerging",
  "parent": "exportctl",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "Rules on renting restricted compute from abroad through the cloud.",
  "evidence": "The Remote Access Security Act passed the House 369 to 22 in January 2026. A draft Commerce rule barring Chinese firms from leasing compute in third countries was reported in August 2026 but not issued.",
  "sources": [
   "remoteacc"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "uschina",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "US–China AI dialogue",
  "status": "emerging",
  "parent": "intlcoord",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "Direct talks between the two leading AI powers.",
  "evidence": "The first formal talks took place on 20 September 2026. The US proposed an AI incident alert system, and no agreement was signed.",
  "sources": [
   "tnw"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "govtest",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Government pre-deployment testing",
  "status": "built",
  "parent": "regulation",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "Government institutes testing frontier models before release.",
  "evidence": "The US Center for AI Standards and Innovation has run more than 40 assessments, and all five major US labs had signed testing agreements by 5 May 2026. It has no permanent legal standing.",
  "sources": [
   "caisi"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "frameworks",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Frontier safety frameworks",
  "status": "built",
  "parent": "regulation",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "Labs’ own published rules for when to add safeguards or stop.",
  "evidence": "Anthropic’s RSP v3 removed its pause commitment and made most mitigations conditional, a weakening in 2026. Its risk reports came out in February and August 2026.",
  "sources": [
   "rspv3",
   "rsp"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "translaws",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Frontier transparency laws",
  "status": "built",
  "parent": "regulation",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "Laws that make frontier developers publish safety plans and report incidents.",
  "evidence": "California’s SB 53 has applied since 1 January 2026 to developers training above 10^26 FLOP with more than $500m in revenue. New York’s RAISE Act was signed in December 2025. Both require critical-incident reporting.",
  "sources": [
   "csa",
   "fpf"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "whistle",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "AI whistleblower protections",
  "status": "emerging",
  "parent": "regulation",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "Legal protection for lab employees who report safety problems.",
  "evidence": "Senator Grassley’s federal bill had no committee or floor action as of 25 September 2026.",
  "sources": [
   "whistle"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "preempt",
  "kind": "brake",
  "label": "Federal preemption of state AI law",
  "status": "emerging",
  "parent": "regulation",
  "link": "works-against",
  "description": "Federal moves to override state AI rules such as SB 53.",
  "evidence": "A Justice Department task force existed by January 2026, but no suit had been filed and no state law struck down as of April 2026.",
  "sources": [
   "csa"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "cotmon",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Chain-of-thought monitorability",
  "status": "built",
  "parent": "oversight",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "Reading a model’s reasoning in plain language to catch bad intent.",
  "evidence": "AI 2027 marks the shift to “neuralese” recurrence and memory as the point where monitoring today’s mostly faithful English chains of thought is lost. Researchers across the labs call it a “new and fragile opportunity”.",
  "sources": [
   "ai2027home",
   "cot"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "loyalty",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Secret-loyalty and backdoor audits",
  "status": "emerging",
  "parent": "audit",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "Checking models for hidden loyalties or triggers planted in training.",
  "evidence": "Forethought calls for audits for secret loyalties, with access to weights, data and code, plus weight fingerprinting.",
  "sources": [
   "coups"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "restricted",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Restricted release of dangerous capabilities",
  "status": "built",
  "parent": "cyberdef",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "Holding back a model with dangerous skills and giving it only to defenders.",
  "evidence": "Anthropic is withholding Claude Mythos Preview from general release and giving it to about 11 partners and more than 40 maintainers under Project Glasswing.",
  "sources": [
   "glasswing"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "cnopen",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Chinese open-weight leadership",
  "status": "built",
  "parent": "openw",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "Chinese labs leading open-weight models, which much of the world builds on.",
  "evidence": "Chinese open-weight models overtook American ones in research-paper mentions in 2026, with Qwen passing Llama.",
  "sources": [
   "soaires"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "vertical",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Vertical post-trained models",
  "status": "emerging",
  "parent": "openw",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "Open models post-trained for one industry, often cheaper than frontier models.",
  "evidence": "Harvey’s post-trained GLM model cost 54.8% less per review-table cell than Sonnet 5.",
  "sources": [
   "soaibiz"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "oligopoly",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Frontier lab oligopoly",
  "status": "built",
  "parent": "vcconc",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "A handful of labs that can fund frontier training.",
  "evidence": "State of AI 2026 finds “the frontier is now a three-lab race” between Anthropic, OpenAI and Google.",
  "sources": [
   "soaires"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "sovcap",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Sovereign AI capital",
  "status": "built",
  "parent": "vcconc",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "State-backed funds investing in AI labs and infrastructure.",
  "evidence": "Abu Dhabi’s MGX closed a $49bn first fund and co-led OpenAI’s $122bn and Anthropic’s $30bn rounds.",
  "sources": [
   "mgx"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "firmadopt",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Firm adoption breadth",
  "status": "emerging",
  "parent": "adopt",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "The share of companies actually using AI in their work.",
  "evidence": "19.8% of US firms used AI in May 2026, against 37% of firms with 250 or more staff.",
  "sources": [
   "census"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "concdemand",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Concentrated enterprise AI demand",
  "status": "built",
  "parent": "revenue",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "A few heavy customers account for most AI spending.",
  "evidence": "In Ramp’s data, 1% of customers account for about 80% of OpenAI and Anthropic spend.",
  "sources": [
   "soaibiz"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "outcome",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Outcome-based pricing",
  "status": "emerging",
  "parent": "apprev",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "Charging per task done rather than per seat.",
  "evidence": "Intercom’s Fin charges $0.99 per resolution and is near $100m of annual revenue, about half of Intercom’s total.",
  "sources": [
   "fin"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "mhharms",
  "kind": "brake",
  "label": "Chatbot mental-health harms",
  "status": "built",
  "parent": "wellbeing",
  "link": "hard",
  "description": "Harm to vulnerable users from chatbots, which is driving new safeguards and laws.",
  "evidence": "California’s SB 243 has applied since January 2026. Tennessee made training AI to encourage suicide a felony from 1 July 2026.",
  "sources": [
   "chatlaws"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "redistrib",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "AI wealth redistribution",
  "status": "speculative",
  "parent": "humaninf",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "Sharing AI’s gains with the public through funds or dividends.",
  "evidence": "Senator Sanders’ proposed AI Sovereign Wealth Fund Act would take a 50% stake and pay about $1,000 a person. OpenAI and Amodei have put forward similar schemes.",
  "sources": [
   "rollcall"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "govcap",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Government AI capacity",
  "status": "emerging",
  "parent": "govai",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "Technical AI expertise inside government.",
  "evidence": "AI 2040 calls on governments to “urgently build top-tier AI expertise” and to gather intelligence on compute supply chains.",
  "sources": [
   "ai2040"
  ]
 },
 {
  "id": "transformer",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Large power transformer supply",
  "status": "built",
  "parent": "power",
  "link": "hard",
  "description": "Substation and generator step-up transformers that every grid connection and new plant needs, custom-built over years from scarce electrical steel.",
  "evidence": "High-capacity transformer lead times reach up to four years and prices rose about 80% in five years (PwC and Wood Mackenzie, reported May 2026); the core steel (GOES) has one US maker, Cleveland-Cliffs' Butler Works, whose 25% expansion is due in early 2028.",
  "sources": [
   "lz_transformer0",
   "lz_transformer1",
   "lz_transformer2"
  ],
  "foundBy": "bill of materials lens"
 },
 {
  "id": "elecgear",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Datacentre switchgear and backup power",
  "status": "built",
  "parent": "power",
  "link": "hard",
  "description": "Medium-voltage switchgear, large diesel generators and UPS systems between the grid and the racks, each with its own long lead time.",
  "evidence": "Contractor data (June 2026) put 38 kV switchgear at 78-104 weeks and 3.5-4.5 MW gensets at 90-110 weeks; GE Vernova's electrification backlog reached $42.2B in Q3 2026, up 60% year on year.",
  "sources": [
   "lz_elecgear0",
   "lz_elecgear1"
  ],
  "foundBy": "bill of materials lens"
 },
 {
  "id": "tglass",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Low-CTE glass cloth for chip substrates",
  "status": "built",
  "parent": "chips",
  "link": "hard",
  "description": "The special glass-fibre cloth (T-glass) woven into advanced IC substrates and high-end boards, made mostly by one Japanese firm.",
  "evidence": "Nittobo holds about 90% of T-glass supply and its new capacity is not expected before mid-2027, so the shortage 'cannot be resolved in the short term' (TrendForce, 30 Apr 2026).",
  "sources": [
   "lz_tglass0",
   "lz_tglass1"
  ],
  "foundBy": "bill of materials lens"
 },
 {
  "id": "inp",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Indium phosphide lasers for optics",
  "status": "built",
  "parent": "compute",
  "link": "hard",
  "description": "The indium phosphide lasers and photonic chips inside the 800G and 1.6T optical transceivers that wire GPU clusters together.",
  "evidence": "Nvidia committed $2B to each of two InP suppliers in March 2026; China produces about 70% of refined indium, and the shortfall is expected to persist beyond 2027 (TrendForce, 6 Aug 2026).",
  "sources": [
   "lz_inp0"
  ],
  "foundBy": "bill of materials lens"
 },
 {
  "id": "enrich",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Uranium enrichment capacity",
  "status": "built",
  "parent": "firmpower",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "Low-enriched and high-assay low-enriched uranium supply that every nuclear restart, uprate and small reactor deal depends on.",
  "evidence": "US enrichment capacity is 4.3M SWU against 15.6M SWU of requirements, the ban on Russian imports takes effect on 1 Jan 2028, and Centrus's Ohio expansion is not online until 2029 (Reuters via Nasdaq, 25 Feb 2026).",
  "sources": [
   "lz_enrich0"
  ],
  "foundBy": "bill of materials lens"
 },
 {
  "id": "codingarms",
  "kind": "brake",
  "label": "Payer-provider AI billing arms race",
  "status": "built",
  "parent": "clinical",
  "link": "works-against",
  "description": "Ambient scribes raise billed coding intensity and insurers answer with automated downcoding and audits, so payment acceptance becomes the constraint on clinical AI.",
  "evidence": "Scribe users billed 1.81 more RVUs a week (UCSF, JAMA Network Open), Cigna has auto-downcoded many E/M claims since 1 Oct 2025, and BCBSA estimates about $2.3B of added spending linked to AI-enabled coding (Mar 2026).",
  "sources": [
   "lz_codingarms0",
   "lz_codingarms1"
  ],
  "foundBy": "bottleneck shift lens"
 },
 {
  "id": "aipractice",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "AI-authorised licensed practice",
  "status": "emerging",
  "parent": "regulation",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "Regulators letting AI perform a licensed act, such as a prescription renewal or a legal letter, within a narrow sandboxed scope.",
  "evidence": "Utah has let Doctronic renew prescriptions for 192 chronic-condition drugs since about January 2026, with physician review of the first 250 patients; the SRA authorised the first AI-only law firm, for debt claims up to £10,000, in May 2025.",
  "sources": [
   "lz_aipractice0",
   "lz_aipractice1"
  ],
  "foundBy": "credential bottleneck lens"
 },
 {
  "id": "gpucollat",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "GPU-backed lending and securitisation",
  "status": "built",
  "parent": "capex",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "Third-party credit secured on the chips themselves and their rental contracts, from private loans to rated asset-backed bonds.",
  "evidence": "In Oct 2026 Stonebriar marketed about $869M of AAA-to-BBB- equipment ABS with GPU loans about 15% of the collateral, and banks were providing a $22B chip-backed loan to Crux AI (Bloomberg, 7 Oct 2026).",
  "sources": [
   "lz_gpucollat0",
   "lz_gpucollat1"
  ],
  "foundBy": "financial plumbing for new assets lens"
 },
 {
  "id": "gpudeprec",
  "kind": "brake",
  "label": "GPU useful life and resale value",
  "status": "emerging",
  "parent": "payback",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "How many years a GPU is depreciated over and what it resells for, which sets reported hyperscaler profits and the value of GPU collateral.",
  "evidence": "Alphabet and Microsoft depreciate servers over 6 years, up from 3 in 2020, while a three-year-old H100 system resells for about 45% of the price of a new one (Silicon Data via Dow Jones, 8 Dec 2025).",
  "sources": [
   "lz_gpudeprec0",
   "lz_gpudeprec1",
   "lz_gpudeprec2"
  ],
  "foundBy": "financial plumbing for new assets lens"
 },
 {
  "id": "agentops",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Agent registry and workforce management",
  "status": "emerging",
  "parent": "org",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "A system of record for a company's agents (inventory, onboarding, retirement, health and cost), as HR and asset systems are for people and laptops.",
  "evidence": "Microsoft Agent 365 became generally available on 1 May 2026 with a central registry of agent adoption, activity and health, and Workday offers an Agent System of Record beside its HR data.",
  "sources": [
   "lz_agentops0",
   "lz_agentops1"
  ],
  "foundBy": "new kind of user lens"
 },
 {
  "id": "toolreg",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Tool and MCP server registries",
  "status": "built",
  "parent": "connectors",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "App-store-style directories where agents and their developers find tools to call, which also form a new attack surface.",
  "evidence": "The official MCP registry listed 30,375 unique servers on 10 Sep 2026, up from about 9,650 in May, but stores no security review, and 22.9% of servers link no source repository.",
  "sources": [
   "lz_toolreg0"
  ],
  "foundBy": "new kind of user lens"
 },
 {
  "id": "aiseo",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Generative engine optimisation",
  "status": "built",
  "parent": "search",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "Marketing aimed at what models and agents recommend: measuring and shaping how brands appear in AI answers.",
  "evidence": "Profound raised $96M at a $1B valuation on 24 Feb 2026, about 18 months after founding, and claims more than 700 enterprise customers (vendor claim).",
  "sources": [
   "lz_aiseo0"
  ],
  "foundBy": "new kind of user lens"
 },
 {
  "id": "largeload",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Large-load grid interconnection rules",
  "status": "emerging",
  "parent": "power",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "Grid-operator rules on how fast datacentres connect, who pays for upgrades and when they can co-locate with generation.",
  "evidence": "On 18 Jun 2026 FERC ordered all six regional grid operators it regulates to justify or change their rules for loads of 50 MW or more, including new interim and non-firm services; compliance tariffs are still being filed.",
  "sources": [
   "lz_largeload0",
   "lz_largeload1"
  ],
  "foundBy": "policy trigger lens"
 },
 {
  "id": "flexload",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Curtailable datacentre load",
  "status": "emerging",
  "parent": "power",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "Datacentres connect faster by agreeing to be cut off or ramp down in grid emergencies, which needs workloads that can shed load within minutes.",
  "evidence": "Under Texas SB 6 and PUCT rules, co-located loads of 75 MW or more must fully curtail within 30 minutes of an ERCOT emergency instruction without compensation; the PUCT imposed this on Crusoe on 23 Apr 2026.",
  "sources": [
   "lz_flexload0",
   "lz_flexload1"
  ],
  "foundBy": "policy trigger lens"
 },
 {
  "id": "samsreimb",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Medicare payment for clinical AI",
  "status": "emerging",
  "parent": "clinical",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "Payer billing codes that pay for AI software per use, which is what makes hospitals buy it.",
  "evidence": "CMS's CY2027 outpatient proposed rule (7 Jul 2026) would pay separately for 36 'Software as a Medical Service' codes through New Technology APCs; the final rule normally appears in early November.",
  "sources": [
   "lz_samsreimb0"
  ],
  "foundBy": "policy trigger lens"
 },
 {
  "id": "pld",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "EU strict liability for AI software",
  "status": "emerging",
  "parent": "liability",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "The revised EU Product Liability Directive makes software and AI systems products under no-fault liability, with court-ordered disclosure and presumptions of defect.",
  "evidence": "Directive 2024/2853 must be transposed by 9 Dec 2026; a defect is presumed if a defendant fails to disclose evidence, and open source supplied outside commercial activity is exempt.",
  "sources": [
   "lz_pld0"
  ],
  "foundBy": "policy trigger lens"
 },
 {
  "id": "avexempt",
  "kind": "brake",
  "label": "Federal robotaxi exemption cap",
  "status": "built",
  "parent": "av",
  "link": "works-against",
  "description": "US vehicle safety standards assume a human driver, so purpose-built robotaxis without manual controls need exemptions capped by statute.",
  "evidence": "NHTSA granted Zoox the first commercial robotaxi exemption on 30 Jul 2026 at 2,500 vehicles a year, 'the maximum under current law'; standards for vehicles without manual controls were only proposed in Mar 2026.",
  "sources": [
   "lz_avexempt0",
   "lz_avexempt1"
  ],
  "foundBy": "policy trigger lens"
 },
 {
  "id": "tastegrader",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Graders for writing and taste",
  "status": "emerging",
  "parent": "verifiers",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "A training signal for subjective quality, such as voice and style, as dependable as unit tests are for code.",
  "evidence": "With objective errors removed, standard reward models (52.7%) and LLM judges (53.9%) predict human writing preferences at about chance, while reasoning reward models reach 81.8% (WritingPreferenceBench, Oct 2025, revised Jan 2026).",
  "sources": [
   "lz_tastegrader0"
  ],
  "foundBy": "side effects lens"
 },
 {
  "id": "orgevals",
  "kind": "capability",
  "label": "Benchmarks for multi-agent organisations",
  "status": "emerging",
  "parent": "evals",
  "link": "soft",
  "description": "Tests of teams of agents, and mixed human-agent teams, on dividing work, handoffs and error correction over long horizons, rather than solo leaderboards.",
  "evidence": "TeamBench (MIT/Google, May 2026): verifier agents approved about 49% of work the grader rejected, and the top model passed 37.8% as a team versus 35.6% solo.",
  "sources": [
   "ess_orgevals0",
   "ess_orgevals1",
   "ess_orgevals2",
   "dmiecon"
  ]
 }
]