Generative AI Fundamentals Map

Map/Interfaces and society/Wave 3

Cognitive abundance

Thinking is cheap, so value moves to what cannot be copied: energy, matter, trust and attention.

stageSpeculative Open on the map →

Facts

Lane: Interfaces and society
Wave: 3 of 12 (build order, not a date)
Needs: 7 boxes all the way back through hard links
Unlocks: 0 boxes downstream through hard links
Leverage: None
Cluster: Around datacentre capex
When: Sourced forecast: 2045

Evidence as of October 2026

Epoch AI finds the price of a fixed level of capability falling between 9x and 900x a year.

Watch
Price per unit of fixed capability.

Timeline note
No forecast found.

Around it

Needs · 4

Compute supplycapability · Built today
Capability price deflationcapability · Built today
Agent economiesstage · Speculative · helps, not required
Embodied agentsstage · Emerging · helps, not required

Unlocks · 1

Choosing the objectivestage · Speculative · helps, not required

Loops and off-ramps

Gradual disempowermentharmful loop
Capex pullbackoff-ramp · cut off
Taiwan chip disruptionoff-ramp · cut off
Power shortfalloff-ramp · cut off
Capability plateauoff-ramp · slowed
Training data ruled outoff-ramp · slowed
Incident-driven haltoff-ramp · slowed
Misuse catastropheoff-ramp · slowed
Public backlashoff-ramp · slowed

Openings researchers' judgement, October 2026 scouting

Startup room 33/100 · rank 101 of 124 Research room 48/100 · rank 67 of 124

Crowding1 Lab overlap4 Small-team fit2 Buyer today1 Research openness3

Depth: light
Players: Epoch AI (price measurement); frontier labs (cost curves)
Wedge: Measuring economic output of cognition, not token price. research

01Pillitteri: Epoch AI prices fall