Method and sources
The map holds 184 main boxes in 16 lanes, 55 detail boxes, 54 works-against links, 26 loops, 10 off-ramps and 253 cited sources. Everything on this site is generated from that data.
Boxes and links
A box is something that has to exist or happen. A stage is a milestone (53 of them); a capability is something that enables one; a brake slows things down. Status is a read of the field as of October 2026: built, emerging or speculative. An arrow means the target cannot happen until the source does (a hard link). Dashed links only speed it up (soft). Works-against links never change a wave.
Measured
Wave. One plus the longest chain of hard prerequisites among main boxes. For layout, an unbuilt capability with no prerequisite sits just before the first box that needs it, and detail boxes take their parent's wave. Soft links never move a wave. The map has 12 waves.
Leverage. Each unbuilt stage is worth one point, split equally among the unbuilt boxes still in its way through hard links. A box's leverage is the points it collects. Brakes and the stage itself are left out.
Off-ramp cuts. A box is cut off if a hit box sits upstream of it through hard links and it is not built. It is slowed if it is reached only through soft links, or is already built.
Openings scores. Startup room = (6 − crowding) + (6 − lab overlap) + small-team fit + buyer today, scaled by (1 + leverage share ÷ 2.55) and cut by a quarter when the only wedge is research. Research room = research openness + (6 − crowding) ÷ 2, scaled the same way. Each is normalised to 100 across unbuilt boxes.
Clusters. 9 groups found from the links alone by community detection, weighting hard links 1, soft links 0.5 and works-against links 0.5.
Judgement
Which links are hard and which are soft, each box's status, the scarcity scores, and the five 1-to-5 inputs behind the openings scores (crowding, lab overlap, small-team fit, buyer today, research openness) are researchers' judgements, not measurements. The what-if tool on the map shows how the computed numbers move when a judgement call changes.
Data
The data behind the site is available as JSON. Licence to be confirmed; CC BY 4.0 is proposed.
Sources
253 sources back the boxes, loops and off-ramps, and every claim on a box page links to its own. Some are news or newsletter reports of a primary paper or announcement, with the outlet named in the title; some are secondary or vendor claims.