AGI declared

AGI as a legal and commercial event as well as a capability.

Facts

Lane: Trust and governance
Wave: 8 of 12 (build order, not a date)
Needs: 19 boxes all the way back through hard links
Unlocks: 0 boxes downstream through hard links
Leverage: None
Cluster: Agents at work

Evidence as of October 2026

Under the October 2025 Microsoft–OpenAI deal, an independent expert panel must verify any AGI declaration, which changes revenue sharing and IP rights.

01OpenAI: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

Around it

Needs · 1

AGI: top-expert-level AIstage · Speculative

Unlocks · 0

Nothing further on the map.

Loops and off-ramps

Capex pullbackoff-ramp · cut off
Taiwan chip disruptionoff-ramp · cut off
Power shortfalloff-ramp · cut off
Capability plateauoff-ramp · cut off
Training data ruled outoff-ramp · slowed

Openings researchers' judgement, October 2026 scouting

Startup room 39/100 · rank 70 of 124 Research room 57/100 · rank 42 of 124

Crowding1 Lab overlap4 Small-team fit3 Buyer today2 Research openness4

Depth: light
Players: Microsoft-OpenAI expert-panel AGI clause (Oct 2025)
Wedge: An auditable, contract-grade operational AGI test and panel protocol. research

01Microsoft: next chapter with OpenAI