Export controls
Governments decide which chips and models may cross which borders.
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Facts
- Lane
- Security and geopolitics
- Wave
- 1 of 12 (build order, not a date)
- Needs
- 0 boxes all the way back through hard links
- Unlocks
- 4 boxes downstream through hard links
- Leverage
- None: already built
- Cluster
- Compute governance and geopolitics
Evidence as of October 2026
In June 2026 the US Commerce Department ordered Anthropic to restrict two frontier models on national-security grounds; Anthropic pulled them for all users until the controls were lifted at the end of the month.
Detail boxes 2
Advanced chips reaching restricted countries despite export controls.
Epoch AI estimates about 660,000 H100-equivalents were smuggled through the end of 2025 (90% range 290,000 to 1.6 million), roughly a third of China’s AI compute.
Rules on renting restricted compute from abroad through the cloud.
The Remote Access Security Act passed the House 369 to 22 in January 2026. A draft Commerce rule barring Chinese firms from leasing compute in third countries was reported in August 2026 but not issued.
Around it
Nothing beyond the detail list. It can start at any time.