Generative AI Fundamentals Map

Map/Security and geopolitics/Wave 8

Government AGI project

A state-run or state-directed effort to build AGI, on the model of the Manhattan Project.

stageSpeculative Open on the map →

Facts

Lane: Security and geopolitics
Wave: 8 of 12 (build order, not a date)
Needs: 16 boxes all the way back through hard links
Unlocks: 0 boxes downstream through hard links
Leverage: None
Cluster: Compute governance and geopolitics
When: Sourced forecast: 2027 to 2029

Evidence as of October 2026

Aschenbrenner’s “The Project” is a US government AGI effort he expected around 2027 or 2028.

01Leopold Aschenbrenner, Situational Awareness

Watch
Government ownership or direction of frontier training runs.

Timeline note
Aschenbrenner expected The Project around 2027 or 2028.

01Leopold Aschenbrenner, Situational Awareness

Around it

Needs · 3

Strategic AI competitionstage · Emerging
Sovereign computecapability · Emerging
Model weight securitycapability · Emerging

Unlocks · 0

Nothing further on the map.

Loops and off-ramps

Capex pullbackoff-ramp · cut off
Taiwan chip disruptionoff-ramp · cut off
Power shortfalloff-ramp · cut off
Capability plateauoff-ramp · cut off
Training data ruled outoff-ramp · slowed

Openings researchers' judgement, October 2026 scouting

Startup room 33/100 · rank 102 of 124 Research room 52/100 · rank 59 of 124

Crowding2 Lab overlap5 Small-team fit2 Buyer today3 Research openness4

Depth: light
Players: US DOE Genesis Mission (278 projects, $293m solicitation)
Wedge: Control and checks-and-balances design for a national or joint AGI project. research

01AI Weekly: Genesis Mission