Generative AI Fundamentals Map

Map/Interfaces and society/Wave 5

On-device models

Models that run on a phone or laptop, so private data stays local.

capabilityBuilt today Open on the map →

Facts

Lane: Interfaces and society
Wave: 5 of 12 (build order, not a date)
Needs: 9 boxes all the way back through hard links
Unlocks: 1 boxes downstream through hard links
Leverage: None: already built
Cluster: Around datacentre capex

Evidence as of October 2026

Apple’s Foundation Models framework gives app developers direct access to an on-device model.

01Apple gives iOS developers access to on-device AI

Around it

Needs · 2

Open-weight modelscapability · Built today
Hardware cost per tokencapability · Built today

Unlocks · 2

Ambient AI wearablesstage · Emerging
Extended mindstage · Speculative · helps, not required

Brakes

Works against this box

Commodity memory crowded out by HBMbrake · Built today

Loops and off-ramps

Cheaper means morereinforcing loop
Capex pullbackoff-ramp · slowed
Taiwan chip disruptionoff-ramp · slowed
Power shortfalloff-ramp · slowed
Training data ruled outoff-ramp · slowed
Misuse catastropheoff-ramp · slowed