Generative AI Fundamentals Map

Map/Models and thresholds/Wave 5

Reasoning models

Models that think before they answer. Single steps get much smarter.

stageBuilt today Open on the map →

Facts

Lane: Models and thresholds
Wave: 5 of 12 (build order, not a date)
Needs: 10 boxes all the way back through hard links
Unlocks: 60 boxes downstream through hard links
Leverage: None: already built
Cluster: Science and medicine
When: Here since 2024

Evidence as of October 2026

Level 2, "Reasoners", on the five-level scale toward AGI that OpenAI reportedly uses internally.

01OpenAI’s reported five levels toward AGI (Tom’s Guide)

Watch
Price and speed of frontier reasoning at a fixed benchmark score.

Timeline note
OpenAI’s o1 reasoning model, September 2024.

Around it

Needs · 3

Pretraining at scalecapability · Built today
RL on checkable taskscapability · Built today
Test-time computecapability · Built today

Unlocks · 8

AGI: top-expert-level AIstage · Speculative
Long-horizon agentsstage · Built today
AI in research mathematicscapability · Emerging
Clinical AI in practicecapability · Emerging
AI cyber defencecapability · Emerging
AI-enabled persuasionbrake · Built today
Opaque reasoningbrake · Emerging
Narrowing of scientific inquirybrake · Built today

Loops and off-ramps

AI research automationreinforcing loop
Capital flywheelreinforcing loop
Autoresearchreinforcing loop
Domains make the datareinforcing loop
AI designs its own chipsreinforcing loop
Capex pullbackoff-ramp · slowed
Taiwan chip disruptionoff-ramp · slowed
Power shortfalloff-ramp · slowed
Capability plateauoff-ramp · slowed
Training data ruled outoff-ramp · slowed