Map/Physical world/Wave 1

Rare-earth permanent magnet supply

NdFeB magnets, often doped with dysprosium or terbium for heat resistance, inside the motors of robots, vehicles, drones and actuators.

capabilityBuilt today Open on the map →

Facts

Lane: Physical world
Wave: 1 of 12 (build order, not a date)
Needs: 0 boxes all the way back through hard links
Unlocks: 0 boxes downstream through hard links
Leverage: None: already built
Cluster: Robots and the physical economy
Found by: bill of materials lens

Evidence as of October 2026

China holds about 90% of magnet processing and refining (McKinsey, Apr 2026); in May 2026 Japan was receiving 4% of its prior-year dysprosium imports and magnet makers paid 1.5-3x pre-control prices.

Around it

Needs · 0

Nothing beyond the detail list. It can start at any time.

Unlocks · 5

Robotaxis at scalestage · Built today · helps, not required
Embodied agentsstage · Emerging · helps, not required
Home robotsstage · Speculative · helps, not required
Military AI and autonomystage · Emerging · helps, not required
Precision robot actuatorscapability · Emerging · helps, not required

Loops and off-ramps

Decoupling escalationreinforcing loop

Openings researchers' judgement, October 2026 scouting

Crowding3.5 Lab overlap2 Small-team fit2 Buyer today4 Research openness3.5

Depth: light
Players: MP Materials (DoD 15%); Vulcan Elements ($1.4bn govt deal; raising $550M at $2bn); Noveon ($215M C, Jan 2026); Cyclic Materials ($75M, Sep 2026); ReElement ($80M); Toyota/Honda Dy-free R&D
Wedge: Computational design of dysprosium/terbium-free or reduced magnet grades and matching motor topologies for robot and drone makers who cannot wait 3-5 years for new Western capacity. research