Home robots
General-purpose robots doing household work.
stageSpeculative Open on the map →
Facts
- Lane
- Physical world
- Wave
- 6 of 12 (build order, not a date)
- Needs
- 11 boxes all the way back through hard links
- Unlocks
- 0 boxes downstream through hard links
- Leverage
- None
- Cluster
- Robots and the physical economy
- When
- Researcher estimate: 2026 to 2033
Evidence as of October 2026
1X plans to deliver its NEO humanoid to US homes in 2026, leaning on remote operators at first.
Watch
Share of home-robot work done without teleoperation.
Timeline note
1X plans NEO deliveries in 2026, remotely operated at first. Real autonomy later is my estimate.
Around it
Needs · 5
Unlocks · 0
Nothing further on the map.
Brakes
Works against this box
Loops and off-ramps
Openings researchers' judgement, October 2026 scouting
Startup room 31/100 · rank 111 of 124 Research room 44/100 · rank 80 of 124
- Depth
- light
- Players
- 1X NEO ($20k, teleop fallback); Sunday ($165m B, $1.15bn); Figure; Tesla Optimus; Amazon Astro
- Wedge
- No small-team wedge supported; hardware and teleop-backed products need large capital. none