Superintelligence

Systems far beyond the best people across most cognitive work.

Facts

Lane: Models and thresholds
Wave: 10 of 12 (build order, not a date)
Needs: 25 boxes all the way back through hard links
Unlocks: 0 boxes downstream through hard links
Leverage: None
Cluster: Oversight and alignment
When: Researcher estimate: 2031 to 2045

Evidence as of October 2026

Forethought argues that once AI automates AI research, software progress alone could accelerate if returns to research exceed 1, with compute for experiments as the main brake.

Watch
Returns to software research (Forethought estimate: 0.5 to 2). Above 1 means acceleration.

Timeline note
My estimate: some years after AGI, sooner if research automation compounds as Forethought describes.

01Forethought: Will AI R&D automation cause a software intelligence explosion?

Around it

Needs · 6

AGI: top-expert-level AIstage · Speculative
Superhuman AI researcherstage · Speculative
Compute supplycapability · Built today
Intelligence explosionstage · Speculative · helps, not required
Agents designing agentsstage · Speculative · helps, not required
Alignmentcapability · Emerging · helps, not required

Unlocks · 0

Nothing further on the map.

Loops and off-ramps

Capex pullbackoff-ramp · cut off
Taiwan chip disruptionoff-ramp · cut off
Power shortfalloff-ramp · cut off
Capability plateauoff-ramp · cut off
Training data ruled outoff-ramp · slowed
Incident-driven haltoff-ramp · slowed
Misuse catastropheoff-ramp · slowed
Alignment failure in deploymentoff-ramp · cut off
Public backlashoff-ramp · slowed

Openings researchers' judgement, October 2026 scouting

Startup room 22/100 · rank 124 of 124 Research room 44/100 · rank 85 of 124

Crowding4 Lab overlap5 Small-team fit1 Buyer today1 Research openness4

Depth: light
Players: SSI ($2bn at $32bn); Meta Superintelligence Labs; Recursive
Wedge: No small-team wedge; alignment and control questions sit in alignment and oversight. none

01Maginative: SSI $2bn