Superhuman AI researcher

Facts

Lane

Models and thresholds

Wave

9 of 12 (build order, not a date)

Needs

20 boxes all the way back through hard links

Unlocks

6 boxes downstream through hard links

Leverage

0.8 points · stands in the way of 5 of 53 stages · rank 13 of 57

Cluster

Oversight and alignment

When

Researcher estimate: 2029 to 2034

Evidence as of October 2026

AI 2027 puts a superhuman coder, then a superhuman AI researcher, ahead of every other milestone, because each speeds up the rest. Its takeoff forecast equates the superhuman researcher with about a 25x speed-up in AI research; AI Futures measured 1.04 to 2x in 2026.

1. 01AI 2027 takeoff forecast
2. 02AI Futures: Q2.5 2026 timelines update (Aug 2026)

Watch
Speed-up of AI research. AI 2027 equates a superhuman researcher with about 25x.

Timeline note
My estimate, a year or more after an automated coder. AI 2027 put the two months apart; its authors have since pushed their timelines back.

1. 01AI 2027 takeoff forecast
2. 02remio: AI 2027 timeline revisions

Around it

Loops and off-ramps

• AI research automationreinforcing loop
• Power ceilingbalancing loop
• Autoresearchreinforcing loop
• Capex pullbackoff-ramp · cut off
• Taiwan chip disruptionoff-ramp · cut off
• Power shortfalloff-ramp · cut off
• Capability plateauoff-ramp · cut off
• Training data ruled outoff-ramp · slowed
• Alignment failure in deploymentoff-ramp · hit directly

Openings researchers' judgement, October 2026 scouting

Depth

deep

Players

Recursive ($650m, $4.65bn; $410m AWS); Ricursive; Sakana AI and UBC; DeepMind AlphaEvolve; NeoCognition ($40m)

Wedge

Neutral evaluation of AI research ability (research taste, replication) and oversight of automated-research loops; narrow AI-improves-AI loops with automatic scoring. research

1. 01Pulse2: Recursive $650m
2. 02IEEE Spectrum: recursive self-improvement
3. 03AI Futures Q2.5 2026 update