Map/Security and geopolitics/Wave 1

China critical-mineral export controls

China using its dominance in rare earths, indium, gallium and germanium as leverage through export licensing; the mirror image of controls on chips going out.

brakeBuilt today Open on the map →

Facts

Lane: Security and geopolitics
Wave: 1 of 12 (build order, not a date)
Needs: 0 boxes all the way back through hard links
Unlocks: 0 boxes downstream through hard links
Cluster: Robots and the physical economy
Found by: bill of materials lens

Evidence as of October 2026

China's April 2025 rare-earth licensing was still in force in May 2026, with dysprosium and terbium exports about 50% below prior levels and prices outside China up 4-5x (Reuters and Argus, 13 May 2026).

01Trump, Xi to weigh rare-earth truce extension (Profit/Reuters, May 2026)

Around it

Needs · 1

Strategic AI competitionstage · Emerging · helps, not required

Unlocks · 0

Nothing further on the map.

Brakes

This box works against

Chip and memory supplycapability · Built today
Gas turbine and engine supplycapability (detail) · Built today
Military AI and autonomystage · Emerging
Embodied agentsstage · Emerging
Robotaxis at scalestage · Built today
Indium phosphide lasers for opticscapability (detail) · Built today

Loops and off-ramps

Decoupling escalationreinforcing loop
Capex pullbackoff-ramp · slowed
Taiwan chip disruptionoff-ramp · slowed
Power shortfalloff-ramp · slowed
Training data ruled outoff-ramp · slowed

Openings researchers' judgement, October 2026 scouting

Crowding3 Lab overlap1 Small-team fit4 Buyer today3.5 Research openness2.5

Depth: light
Players: MP Materials; USA Rare Earth (seeking $3B+); Cyclic Materials ($75M C, Jan 2026); Phoenix Tailings ($40.2M); Lithosquare ($25M); Fastmarkets/Argus/Benchmark (pricing)
Wedge: Component-level exposure mapping for chip, optics and power-equipment buyers: trace Ga/Ge/In/heavy-REE content to licences and suppliers, flag risk, and list qualified second sources before the Nov 2026 truce lapses. startup