Map/Physical world/Wave 1

US ban on foreign-made robots and drones

FCC Covered List rules that bar new foreign-produced ground robots and drones from US equipment authorisation unless they pass a domestic-content test.

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Facts

Lane: Physical world
Wave: 1 of 12 (build order, not a date)
Needs: 0 boxes all the way back through hard links
Unlocks: 0 boxes downstream through hard links
Cluster: Robots and the physical economy
Found by: policy trigger lens

Evidence as of October 2026

Since 28 Jul 2026 new foreign-produced ground robots over about 2 kg cannot get FCC authorisation unless made in the US with over 65% domestic component cost, rising to 75% in 2029; foreign drones were added in Dec 2025.

Around it

Needs · 1

Strategic AI competitionstage · Emerging · helps, not required

Unlocks · 0

Nothing further on the map.

Brakes

This box works against

Embodied agentsstage · Emerging
Home robotsstage · Speculative
Robot data and foundation modelscapability · Emerging
Teleoperation as a data pipelinecapability · Emerging

Loops and off-ramps

Decoupling escalationreinforcing loop
Capex pullbackoff-ramp · slowed
Taiwan chip disruptionoff-ramp · slowed
Power shortfalloff-ramp · slowed
Training data ruled outoff-ramp · slowed

Openings researchers' judgement, October 2026 scouting

Crowding2.5 Lab overlap1 Small-team fit4 Buyer today3.5 Research openness2

Depth: light
Players: Law firms (MoFo, K&L Gates); Skydio ($3.5bn SkyForge pledge); Unusual Machines; supply-chain intel vendors (WireScreen); DoW Conditional Approval process; no dedicated compliance tool found
Wedge: Domestic-content calculator and part-origin evidence pack for robot and drone makers and importers seeking FCC authorisation or a DoW Conditional Approval, built ahead of the pending hardware/software BOM disclosure rule. startup