Regulation
Rules that say what AI may do and who must check it.
capabilityEmerging Open on the map →
Facts
- Lane
- Trust and governance
- Wave
- 7 of 12 (build order, not a date)
- Needs
- 0 boxes all the way back through hard links
- Unlocks
- 1 boxes downstream through hard links
- Leverage
- None
- Cluster
- Around licensed generative media
Evidence as of October 2026
EU AI Act duties for general-purpose models have applied since August 2025. A May 2026 deal pushes high-risk rules to December 2027.
Detail boxes 6
Government institutes testing frontier models before release.
The US Center for AI Standards and Innovation has run more than 40 assessments, and all five major US labs had signed testing agreements by 5 May 2026. It has no permanent legal standing.
Labs’ own published rules for when to add safeguards or stop.
Anthropic’s RSP v3 removed its pause commitment and made most mitigations conditional, a weakening in 2026. Its risk reports came out in February and August 2026.
Laws that make frontier developers publish safety plans and report incidents.
California’s SB 53 has applied since 1 January 2026 to developers training above 10^26 FLOP with more than $500m in revenue. New York’s RAISE Act was signed in December 2025. Both require critical-incident reporting.
Legal protection for lab employees who report safety problems.
Senator Grassley’s federal bill had no committee or floor action as of 25 September 2026.
Federal moves to override state AI rules such as SB 53.
A Justice Department task force existed by January 2026, but no suit had been filed and no state law struck down as of April 2026.
Regulators letting AI perform a licensed act, such as a prescription renewal or a legal letter, within a narrow sandboxed scope.
Utah has let Doctronic renew prescriptions for 192 chronic-condition drugs since about January 2026, with physician review of the first 250 patients; the SRA authorised the first AI-only law firm, for debt claims up to £10,000, in May 2025.
Around it
Nothing beyond the detail list. It can start at any time.
Brakes
Loops and off-ramps
Openings researchers' judgement, October 2026 scouting
- Depth
- light
- Players
- OneTrust; IBM; ServiceNow; Portal26 ($9m); Trustible; Complyance
- Wedge
- Avoid unless differentiated; EU high-risk deadlines slipped to Dec 2027 and Aug 2028. none