Generative AI Fundamentals Map

Map/Security and geopolitics/Wave 9

Verified slowdown

Rival powers agree to hold frontier capability at a set level, and can check each other.

stageSpeculative Open on the map →

Facts

Lane: Security and geopolitics
Wave: 9 of 12 (build order, not a date)
Needs: 18 boxes all the way back through hard links
Unlocks: 0 boxes downstream through hard links
Leverage: None
Cluster: Compute governance and geopolitics
When: Researcher estimate: 2029 to 2035

Evidence as of October 2026

In AI 2040’s Plan A, the US and China agree in 2029 and hold capabilities at roughly top-human-expert level from 2035 to 2040.

01AI 2040

Watch
Any US–China agreement with verification. The first formal talks were held on 20 September 2026.

Timeline note
AI 2040’s Plan A, a scenario rather than a forecast, has the US and China agree in 2029.

01AI 2040

Around it

Needs · 4

International coordinationcapability · Emerging
Verification of AI agreementscapability · Speculative
Compute deterrencecapability · Speculative · helps, not required
Regulationcapability · Emerging · helps, not required

Unlocks · 1

Choosing the objectivestage · Speculative · helps, not required

Brakes

This box works against

Intelligence explosionstage · Speculative

Loops and off-ramps

Capex pullbackoff-ramp · cut off
Taiwan chip disruptionoff-ramp · cut off
Power shortfalloff-ramp · cut off
Capability plateauoff-ramp · cut off
Training data ruled outoff-ramp · slowed

Openings researchers' judgement, October 2026 scouting

Startup room 46/100 · rank 44 of 124 Research room 66/100 · rank 17 of 124

Crowding1 Lab overlap1 Small-team fit3 Buyer today1 Research openness5

Depth: light
Players: MIRI TGT only
Wedge: Verifying and enforcing compute caps or pauses, and designing restart conditions. research

01MIRI TGT: verifying AI agreements