Power ceiling
balancing loop · 4 steps · Trace on the map →
The cycle
- Scaling and AI research need computeSuperhuman AI researcher
- Electricity demand risesPower and grid buildout
- Grid and generation lag by years
- Compute growth slowsCompute supply
What drives it
Every step up in compute needs a step up in power that grids and permitting cannot deliver quickly.
What breaks it
New generation, efficiency gains and distributed training raise the ceiling. Epoch expects power to bind before chips do; the IEA says transmission lines take four to eight years and about 20% of planned datacentres could be delayed.
What to watch
Datacentre grid-connection queues. Power cost per training run.