Measured productivity gains

AI showing up in economy-wide productivity statistics.

Facts

Lane: Capital and talent
Wave: 9 of 12 (build order, not a date)
Needs: 9 boxes all the way back through hard links
Unlocks: 0 boxes downstream through hard links
Leverage: None
Cluster: Assistants and the public

Evidence as of October 2026

Studies estimate AI adds between 0 and 3.5% a year to productivity growth, about 1% on average. The San Francisco Fed finds recent gains are not economy-wide.

01AllianceBernstein: Proof pending, can AI deliver lasting growth?

Around it

Needs · 2

Workflow redesigncapability · Emerging
Conversational assistantsstage · Built today

Unlocks · 1

Explosive economic growthstage · Speculative · helps, not required

Loops and off-ramps

Capex pullbackoff-ramp · cut off
Taiwan chip disruptionoff-ramp · cut off
Power shortfalloff-ramp · cut off
Capability plateauoff-ramp · slowed
Training data ruled outoff-ramp · slowed
Misuse catastropheoff-ramp · cut off
Public backlashoff-ramp · cut off

Openings researchers' judgement, October 2026 scouting

Startup room 43/100 · rank 54 of 124 Research room 48/100 · rank 74 of 124

Crowding3 Lab overlap3 Small-team fit4 Buyer today3 Research openness4

Depth: light
Players: St Louis and Kansas City Fed; enterprises seeking ROI proof
Wedge: Firm-level causal measurement of AI productivity that shows up in official statistics. research

01Fortune: AI productivity not in data