Generative AI Fundamentals Map

Map/Lane 7 · foundation

Capital and talent

The money and the people that pay for and push the frontier.

11 boxes · 6 built · 4 emerging · 1 speculative · Open on the map →

Wave 1

Datacentre capexcapability · Built today
Capital concentrated in AIstage · Built today

Wave 2

Capability price deflationcapability · Built today
Macro dependence on AI capexcapability · Built today

Wave 3

Token demand explosionstage · Built today
State backstop for the AI buildoutcapability · Emerging

Wave 5

Frontier lab revenuestage · Built today

Wave 8

Frontier research talentcapability · Emerging

Wave 9

Measured productivity gainscapability · Emerging

Wave 10

Explosive economic growthstage · Speculative

Brakes in this lane

Capex payback gapbrake · Emerging

Best openings researchers' judgement

Startup room

State backstop for the AI buildoutcapability · Emerging · 68/100
Explosive economic growthstage · Speculative · 44/100
Measured productivity gainscapability · Emerging · 43/100
Frontier research talentcapability · Emerging · 35/100

Research room

Explosive economic growthstage · Speculative · 63/100
State backstop for the AI buildoutcapability · Emerging · 55/100
Measured productivity gainscapability · Emerging · 48/100
Frontier research talentcapability · Emerging · 22/100